To Empire Builders,
Today’s newsletter is jam packed with news out of PopUp Bagels, and the release of Crumbl & Jersey Mike’s 2025 performance.
Let’s dive in 🫡
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FD Capital offers sell-side advisory services to multi-unit franchisees looking to sell their business.
A few of our current engagements include:
• 7 unit QSR package
• 42 unit fast-casual package
• 5 unit QSR Package (+ development rights on more)
If you are a franchise owner considering selling, get in touch here. If you are interested in current engagements, reply to this email directly.
What’s on My Mind 🧠
Tiger Global Invests in PopUp
Tiger Global Invests at $300M Valuation
At just ~30 stores open today, that’s an implied ~$10M in enterprise value per location.
According to the Bloomberg article detailing this, that’s a 5x on the valuation from just 5 months ago.
The brand had already taken a leading investment from Stripes, a VC firm based in New York, as well as celebrities like J.J. Watt and Michael Phelps.
Yes, PopUp has sold about 300 territories to 15 different franchisees, and yes, the economics so far are incredible.
There’s no actual reporting on this in an FDD, but from franchisees I’ve spoken to, some locations are doing north of $4 million.
Even if we were to be generous and apply a $4M AUV across the system, at the 6% royalty, that will be $7.2 million in royalty revenue in 2026. Let’s be even more generous and add an additional ~$3M in royalty revenue from the stores that are going to open between now and the end of the year.
At ~$10 million in royalty revenue, Tiger Global just invested at a 30x multiple. That is crazy expensive (and it’s likely higher bc again, I was optimistic with my assumptions).
And look, I get it - they’re betting the company is going to be worth a hell of a lot more when this is at 100 or 200 locations open.
But there is major execution risk ahead: The two biggest being…
The Execution Risk
The average unit volume holding at where it is today
The speed at which operators can open
Both of these directly impact the future royalty stream, and ultimately, make or break this investment as a win/loss for Tiger Global.
Today, when a PopUp opens, everyone wants to try the bagels and get a taste of their rotating schmears. But in year two and three, are they going to keep coming back?
I don’t think so. The novelty value will fade, and AUVs will decline with it.
Anyone who has studied this space deeply has seen this play out across multiple brands over the years.
That does NOT mean PopUp will turn into a bad franchise by the way - it just means the current hype (which is crazy high at the moment) isn’t going to last year in and year out as they scale. This is all normal.
Speaking of scaling…
Pop-Up has sold their 300 territories to just 15 franchisees, many of whom are already building 2-4 other franchise brands in tandem.
That’s a much more concentrated number of franchisees than, say, a Dave’s Hot Chicken grew with.
The brand has a goal of reaching 100 units open by the end of 2027. It’s ambitious but not impossible (this would be light work for 7 Brew). For it to happen, the current crop of franchisees will have to open 4-5 stores this year and next.
Again, not at all impossible, but denovo development isn’t easy, and it’s inherently not something you want to rush as an operator (picking a bad site sets the ceiling on your revenue).
Concept > Valuation
I have a hard time seeing the AUV and unit growth hitting the right metrics to support a win for Tiger Global in the next 3-5 five years.
Overall, I think it’s a great brand, and franchisees opening now are likely going to crush it. But that doesn’t mean the current valuation makes sense.
Crumbl & Jersey Mike’s Financials
FDD seasons is upon us, so I figured I’d share the highlights of both brands who have updated numbers from 2025.
Crumbl
The viral cookie brand had an interesting year:
• Average revenue was $1,139,162 (down 16% YoY)
• They ended 2025 with 1,101 locations (+42 on the year)
For the 1st time ever, they did NOT share profit data.
That said...they're far from dead like many who have been predicting their demise for the last ~5 years. 2025 also saw Crumbl take outside capital for the first time.
TSG Consumer Partners - the PE Firm with $14 billion AUM - made a minority investment in the brand in May of last year. Overall, this brand has definitely been a rollercoaster:
Average revenue in 2022 was ~$1.8 million, followed by $1.1M in 2023, then ~$1.3M in 2024.
We'll see how things shake out in 2026...
Jersey Mike’s Financials
The New Jersey sandwich giant had another big year - average revenue per store came in at $1,367,578, which is up ~2.2% from last year.
They also grew by 238 locations, ending 2025 with 3,227 units in the U.S. 10 years ago they had just over 1,000 locations, but have been on a tear ever since.
The house that founder, Peter Cancro, built is the clear leader in the sub category -
Their average revenue per store is the highest amongst Jimmy John’s, Firehouse Subs, and Subway. And they’re marching toward 10,000 units in the U.S. Rumors are swirling the Blackstone owned brand may be going public in the near future...
You could expect that to be a hot IPO if so!
Coming Soon on Empires 🎧
Why Nothing Bundt Cakes Sold for $2 Billion
Featuring a 17-Unit Franchisee
This will be the third episode of my narrative series.
In this episode about Nothing Bundt Cakes, coming out later this week, I’ll document how the brand was sparked from a conversation between two mothers in Las Vegas, to being acquired by KKR for $2 Billion just a few weeks ago.
I’ll dive into the dynamics that make this business model one of the greatest franchises ever, with interview footage of one of their largest franchisees included.
Stay tuned for that…
QSR Corner 🍔
The Rise of International Brands in the U.S.
Luckin Coffee, Mixue and other chains are growing stateside
Carl’s Jr. Franchisee Files Bankruptcy
A 65-unit operator filed for Chapter 11 protections under various subsidiaries after owning the sites for more than two decades.
McDonald’s CEO “Blames Mother” For Big Arch Video
CEO (humorously) explains how his Mom impacted the way he shot the viral Big Arch video
Saucy Introduces Dirty Soda Line Up, DRIPS
DRIPS by Pepsi are crafted beverages designed to elevate the brand’s signature chicken tendies and sauce-centric menu.es.
Domino’s Rolls Out Slice Sauce
Slice Sauce: the brand’s first-ever sauce designed specifically to take every bite of pizza to the next level
Burger King Testing Sliders
The brand is innovating in a new burger category, with a national rollout possible depending on test market performance.
Best of the Rest 🧱
7-Eleven Delays IPO
The public offering, originally slated for fiscal 2026, has been pushed to fiscal 2027
Unreal Taco Bell Golf Bag Goes Viral
If you like golf and Taco Bell…..you’ll wish you found this on eBay
Inflation Surged in March
The War in Iran is impacting the economy, with CPI up 3.3%
That’s it for today’s newsletter, if you enjoyed it, please forward to anyone else in your network who would benefit or find it interesting!